Nearly all of the useful fatal-crash data are from FARS, the only exception
being data on involvement as a function of race which are from North Carolina.
Information on serious injury crashes comes largely from studies emanating from
trauma centers in the U.S. and Canada. Roadside survey data come primarily from
the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey (conducted during weekend,
nighttime hours). The data on DWIs are from a range of studies, including those
whose subjects were DWIs who had been sent by the court to alcohol assessment or
treatment.
Clearly, only the first of the three above areas (involvement in
alcohol-related crashes) bears directly upon the measurement of a group's
alcohol-crash incidence. The non-crash area is pertinent by providing an
estimate of a group's involvement in the nighttime, weekend drinking-driving
that may lead to a crash. The DWI indicator is at best an indirect, second-order
indicator, to the extent that drivers with prior DWI convictions are
over-represented among all alcohol-involved drivers in fatal crashes.
Unfortunately, no satisfactory direct indicator of relative risk of a crash
(that is, probability of a crash given alcohol divided by the probability of a
crash given no alcohol) is available from recent research. This is because, as
indicated above, there are no recent studies based on matched sets of crash data
and non-crash data. Relative risk can only be discussed indirectly. For example,
over-representation of a group in crashes relative to that group's
representation in some non-crash measure, such as the roadside survey, would
suggest high crash risk for that group.
There is also new research to suggest that BACs in the 0.01%-0.09% range are
associated with increased alcohol-crash risk and involvement. FARS data indicate
that there were a sizable number of fatal crashes at these BACs in 1996 (3,507),
but there are no comparable data from non-crashes to get a good estimate of
relative risk. Instead, we have very rough estimates based on FARS data combined
with data from unmatched roadside surveys. These estimates suggest a significant
relative risk at BACs in the 0.05%-0.10% range, and a lower but still not
insignificant risk in the 0.02%-0.05% range. Further, a study of fatal crashes
in Texas found that, as BAC increased, there was a significant increase in the
probability of the killed driver having caused a given multiple-vehicle
fatal crash. This relationship held over the entire BAC range studied, from
0.05% to 0.20%, with the largest marginal increase occurring in the 0.00-0.05%
range.
Data pertaining to the role of other people-related factors in the
alcohol-crash problem are spotty, coming mainly from studies of DWIs, and from
the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey. They suggest an
over-representation among weekend, nighttime drivers of impaired
drivers who are: unemployed, without a college diploma, moderate to very heavy
drinkers, and whose trip purpose was visiting friends. Impaired drivers
appearing in relatively greater frequency among weekend nighttime drivers
and/or DWIs are those who: are employed, are married, have no college
diploma, have a record of many traffic violations and prior DWI convictions, and
drink in many rather than a single location. In addition, recent studies
continue to confirm prior studies that impaired drivers (especially young
drivers) with certain personality/psychosocial characteristics appear more
frequently among DWI populations. These characteristics are relatively high
levels of verbal hostility, assaultiveness, sensation-seeking, impulse
expression, tobacco and drug use, and personal problems, and relatively low
levels of responsible values and parental compatibility. Most of these findings
are not new, but do add confirmatory evidence to the knowledge base.
The latest available FARS report provided data on the type of vehicles driven
by alcohol-impaired drivers involved in fatal crashes. Passenger cars and light
trucks were by far the most frequently used by such drivers, but motorcycle
drivers in fatal crashes were more likely to have been alcohol-impaired than
were drivers of any other type of vehicle. Drivers of heavy trucks in fatal
crashes are the least likely to have been alcohol-impaired.
It should be noted the above discussion applies to variables treated one at a
time as univariates rather than to combinations of variables examined through
multivariate techniques. Very few recent studies have approached the problem
from a multivariate standpoint, and most of these have not had hard data on many
of the most important variables dealing with the crash-involved drivers (for
example, BAC). Lack of such data makes it impossible to identify confidently
more detailed levels of alcohol-problem groups, for example, young, unemployed
males without a college diploma who drive light trucks.
Nevertheless, some useful findings have emerged from recent multivariate
studies. A study of interactions among driver age, sex, and race based on hard
data from North Carolina found that alcohol-impaired non-white male
drivers were significantly more frequent than were alcohol-impaired white
males in alcohol-related crashes. This latter finding was apparently due to
an age-sex interaction effect: in the over-24 years group, non-white
males were significantly more frequent than were white males, while in
the under-25 group, white males were significantly more frequent than
were non-white males. For female drivers in North Carolina, the picture
was more complex, with the frequency of whites outnumbering that of non-whites
by a factor of almost 2 to 1. In the under-25 and over-54 group of
alcohol-impaired drivers, white females were less frequent than were
non-white females, while in the 25-54 group, the frequencies of white females
and non-white females were about the same.
Another multivariate study by James (1990) profiled several "high-risk"
groups of DWIs through factor analyses, but the crash involvement of such groups
was not treated in the analysis, and so the profiles have limited utility in
identifying target groups for countermeasures.
The most comprehensive of the multivariate studies examined in this review
dealt with personality and psychosocial variables in combination with a variety
of other variables, including biographical variables and variables available
from driver records. These studies, while enlightening as to the directions of
relationships among the variables and in supporting hypotheses about the
underlying structure of the relationships, again do not provide much information
for estimating the magnitude of the alcohol-crash problem due to groups having
various combinations of characteristics.
Overall, we conclude that the currently available hard data on the nature of
the alcohol-crash problem are adequate for defining broad groups of
alcohol-crash targets, but are still inadequate for identifying more narrowly
defined target groups. For example, there are sufficient data to say that young
male drivers should be a target group, but not enough data to say, to use the
above example, that young, unemployed males without a college diploma who drive
light trucks are an important subgroup to be singled out for special
countermeasure action. At this juncture, it appears that such detailed levels of
target identification can best flow from combination objective-subjective
processes of the type employed by NHTSA's Tier 1 Task Force.
To help fill this data gap in the problem-identification state of knowledge,
there is a need for new controlled studies of the role of alcohol in traffic
crashes, preferably conducted periodically (say, every five years) in several
different regions of the U.S. These studies should collect detailed information
in the subject areas discussed in this update and be of sufficient magnitude to
permit the multivariate analysis of pertinent study variables. At this writing,
NHTSA has initiated a case-control study that would constitute an important
first step toward this goal. The controlled epidemiologic studies should be
augmented by periodic national surveys of the driving population of the type
recently completed by NHTSA.
These recommendations for research at the national level do not obviate the
need for continued research on a more limited geographic scale. To the contrary,
special studies at the state and local levels are probably the only economically
practical way of obtaining more detailed information on some topics and should
be continued. As indicated above, such studies can be useful when examined in
the light of other studies, providing information that can be pieced together
with other information to help in identifying potential target groups for
alcohol-crash countermeasures.
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1. With the exception of NHTSA's Traffic Safety Facts 1996,
the cutoff date for literature included in this study was February, 1994. Note
that Traffic Safety Facts 1996 bears a publication date of 1997.