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How Safe Are Male Drivers?
The Los Angeles Times' article by David Haldane was entitled "Statistics
Support Steering Clear of Driving Stereotypes" and Evan Nossoff of the
DMV was quoted as saying "Women tend to get into significantly fewer accidents
than men". This statement was supported by the fact that "6.4% of
the male drivers in California are likely to be involved in accidents,
compared to 4.5% of the females." Case closed, right? This is the
word from the DMV, and the DMV rules, right? Men should now sit back
and accept this edict from the DMV that bad remarks about "women drivers"
are merely stereotypes which unfairly criticize the fair sex? Wrong.
The article demonstrates how statistics CAN be used to lie. Take
a careful look at the numbers behind the numbers. Men drive 2 1/2
times as many miles as women, a fact which the CHP had readily at its disposal
but so passionately ignored. Either they didn't want you to know, didn't
know themselves, and/or have been trying everything in the book to obscure
for the last 4 decades that per mile driven, males are much better drivers
than females. The accident rate for males is higher than it would
be if it were not for the higher accident rate of females. If female
drivers were having accidents with only other female drivers, then they
would not contribute to an increase in the male accident rate. But
female drivers have accidents with male drivers also, which drives up the
accident rate for males. The total accident rate for each mile driven
by a male, rather than being .000003133 accidents per mile as it now is,
would be only .000002010 if female drivers had the same safety record as
male drivers.
This is 2 1/2 times fewer accidents per mile than female drivers.
The article also noted that "even though [truckers] drive about 21%
of the registered vehicles on the road, [they] were involved in only 3%
of the state's fatal accidents". CHP spokeswoman Pat Ryan, a former
trucker "Our general experience has been that commercial drivers are safer
drivers. They have to be; it's their livelihood". This is a
bit misleading because it fails to note two important data points:
-
Males, who are already safer drivers than females by a demonstrable 2.5
times, are 89% of the nation's truckers (per the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
3,454K male and 428K female).
-
The percent of registered vehicles which are trucks is not nearly as important
as the fact that truckers drive 32.9% of the nation's miles (per the US
Statistical Abstract, they drive 786.3 Billion of the total 2,388.3 Billion
miles driven each year).
This makes truckers responsible for 1/11th as many fatal accidents (not
1/7th) as the drivers of passenger cars for each mile driven, 2.2 times
of which is due to the fact that 89% of them are male drivers. This
still means that truckers are involved in 1/5th as many fatal accidents
as passenger car drivers, which is a real tribute to their profession.
| California Drivers |
Male |
Female |
Total |
Male:Female Ratio |
| Percent Drivers in Accidents |
6.4% |
4.5% |
|
1.42:1 |
| Total Drivers |
8,919,394 |
8,620,952 |
17,540,346 |
1.03:1 |
| Drivers/Year in Accidents |
570,841 |
387,943 |
958,784 |
1.47:1 |
| Miles/Year Driven |
187.4 Billion |
76.6 Billion |
264 Billion |
2.47:1 |
| Accidents/Mile |
.000003047 |
.000005063 |
.000003632 |
.60:1 |
| IF ALL DRIVERS HAD THE SAFETY
RECORD OF MALE DRIVERS: |
|
|
|
|
| Miles/Year Driven |
264 Billion |
0 |
264 Billion |
~ |
| Accidents/Mile If Only Male Drivers |
.000002010 |
0 |
.000002010 |
~ |
| Drivers/Year in Accidents |
530,640 |
0 |
530,640 |
~ |
|
|
|
|
|
| Reduction in Drivers/Year Involved in Accidents |
|
|
428,144 (or 44.7%) |
|
If in addition the number of miles driven per year could be reduced
by 76.6 Billion miles, or 29%, this would decrease the number of drivers/year
involved in accidents by another (530,640 x 29%) or 153,886 drivers.
This is a total reduction of 581,974 drivers involved in accidents, or
a grand total reduction of 60.7%, before taking into account the benefits
of lower congestion.
There are 43,900 traffic fatalities per year in the US. A reduction
of 60.7% would save a remarkable 26,647 lives per year. This is more
lives than are saved every year from all the child abuse laws, the Violence
Against Women's Act, the Gun Control laws, Cancer Research funding, AIDs
funding, and OSHA combined. It is the equivalent of 133 jumbo jet
crashes per year, 157 Oklahoma City Bombings per year, 333 Wacos per year,
or 436 Northridge Earthquakes per year. Per the National Safety Council,
the loss to motor vehicle accidents each year is $170.6 Billion, so a 60.7%
reduction in the accident rate would save the economy $103.5 Billion per
year, or 1.5% of GDP.
If all-male drivers have the potential to save the nation 1.5% of GDP
and 26,647 lives per year, then how much could be saved with an all-male
military? What do you think can or should be done? How much
are we as taxpayers willing to spend to give women super rights when we
as taxpayers cannot find any benefits from this, and particularly when
it is so costly in both dollars and lives?
CALCULATIONS
Some accidents involve only one driver and some involve 3 or more,
a rough average of 2 drivers per accident, giving us (958,784 accidents
divided by 2 drivers/accident, or ) 479,392 accidents per year. The
probability of a male having an accident is X, and the probability of a
female having an accident as noted above is 1.66 times that, or 1.66X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X2 = 88,448
B = male:female accident = 1.66X x 1.66X = 2.76X2 = 244,116
C = female:female accident = 1.51X x X = 1.66X2 = 146,824
A + B + C = 479,392, so X = 297.4
If all of the B drivers had the same probability of having an accident
as the A drivers did, then the number of B accidents would have been 88,448
rather than 244,116, or 155,668 less. If all the C drivers had the
same probability of having an accident as the A drivers did, then the number
of C accidents would have been 88,448 rather than 146,824, or 58,376 less.
Instead of 479,392 accidents, if drivers B & C had had the same skill
as drivers A, there would have been only 265,348 accidents, which is 214,044,
or 44.7%, fewer accidents, and 428,088 fewer drivers involved in accidents.
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